Expected value is a very important concept that guides you on how your baccarat choices are mathematically correct over time. It does not depend on luck, hunch, or feeling but provides a method to assess each wager systematically.
Here is an article that makes the expected value concept easy to grasp, illustrates its connection to baccarat, and guides you on how to use it to place smarter bets.
What Expected Value Means in Baccarat Betting?
The expected value (EV) of baccarat betting is the expected average win or loss for each bet over the long term. The EV of each type of bet made in baccarat is determined by the probability of winning and the payout structure associated with that particular wager.
In general:
- Having a positive EV=long-term advantage
- Having a negative EV=long-term expected loss
Because baccarat is an online casino game that favors the house, all of the possible outcomes will generally result in a negative EV. Knowing the expected value allows you to make informed decisions when placing wagers by avoiding making bad wagers, while also allowing you to find the best bets to make.
House Edge and Why Baccarat EV Is Always Negative
Baccarat is usually considered a game with a house edge, but a very low one. Expected value (EV) is where the game is statistically against players, but not overwhelmingly so. That will make clear the role of EV in this.
Generally, the house edges that you are likely to come across are:
- Banker bet: about 1.06% (statistically the best bet)
- Player bet: about 1.24%
- Tie bet: very high, typically above 14%
However, although the Banker bet is the most statistically advantageous, its expected value is still slightly negative. Over time, it is therefore expected that players will lose, although there may be large fluctuations in the short term.
Calculating Baccarat Expected Value
You don’t have to be a genius with maths to calculate expected value (EV) in baccarat. The formula is easy to remember and will help explain each of your betting decisions.
EV=(Pwin×payout) − (Ploss×stake)
In order to find EV for a specific bet, you will need to determine the probability of you winning vs. losing that bet and use that number with the payout for that bet.
As an example, the banker’s bet has a better chance of winning but is charged a small commission, which changes the final EV. Even if a bet appears to be “safe”, when you look at the numbers, it still shows you a very slight disadvantage in the long run.
Wrapping Up
Expected value is a fresh way of looking at baccarat that allows you to step outside of luck and guessing. It won’t turn the house edge to zero, but it’ll highlight the bets with the least disadvantage and help you keep away from the emotionally-motivated mistakes. Making better decisions is possible only if you first see everything through the lens of EV. After a while, this practice will lead you to a more rational play, a better risk control, and a constant state of being in charge of your strategy instead of the game dictating your moves.